2025-02-17
Today’s battle situation, information intelligence, put first.
1. Industry beta opportunities revealed by capacity climbing
Capacity elasticity verifies demand resilience:
The V-shaped repair curve from 50,000+ units in December to a rapid correction to 50,000 units in February confirms the strong anti-cyclical characteristics of emerging market demand. The short-term contraction under the Spring Festival disturbance (40,000 units in January) and the rebound of Southeast Asian/African orders after the resumption of work laid the foundation for the high year-on-year growth in 25Q1 (compared with the base of about 80,000 units in 24Q1)
2. Emerging market strategy: from “picking up crumbs” to “cutting cakes”
1. Africa’s energy revolution is in progress: rigid demand explodes under the collapse of the power grid
Core logic:
Africa is not a “low-end market”, but the only continent in the world where the power grid coverage has regressed (World Bank data):
South Africa: The number of power outages in 2023 will reach 207 days, and the penetration rate of household self-provided energy storage will be less than 3%. South Africa’s administrative regulation of a 12.74% jump in electricity prices in April (Nigeria is expected to follow suit) is reshaping the structure of household energy consumption. The current penetration rate of 2,000-3,000 units per month is only the initial stage of the exposure of grid vulnerability, and household storage equipment is transforming from luxury goods to quasi-necessities.
Nigeria: Only 40% of the 120 million population can use electricity stably, but the cost of diesel generators is as high as $0.5/kWh (Deye’s solution can reduce the cost to $0.15/kWh)
2. Southeast Asia’s energy generational leap: directly entering the era of distributed energy storage
Skipping the traditional grid construction stage and directly entering the era of distributed energy storage. Behind the 50%+ growth rate forecast is the resonance of the island economy’s energy autonomy demand and the urban power gap.
3. The US commercial storage singularity is approaching: “Rural areas surround cities”
At present, the demand for commercial and industrial energy storage in ordinary households is increasing, starting from rural areas, and then slowly sweeping across major industrial areas in cities, with a good momentum.
Targeting three types of users:
Convenience store chains: 45%
Small and medium-sized factories: 30%
Agricultural cooperatives: 25%
Policy arbitrage: In Texas, California and other places, energy storage system investment can obtain:
30% federal tax credit
Operation subsidy of US$0.05 per kilowatt-hour
Accelerated depreciation of equipment (complete depreciation in 5 years)
3. Product innovation: not “upgrade” but “reconstruction”
Off-grid system: special attack weapon for emerging markets
Off-grid products with monthly sales of 20,000 units (half in Africa/Southeast Asia) are essentially monetization solutions for the lack of grid infrastructure. The annualized target of 300,000-400,000 units corresponds to an incremental market of approximately US$1.5 billion.
Gross profit margin moat of battery pack business
Lithium battery products that meet local needs must be provided, and the configuration must meet the actual needs of local customers, and local business must be restructured
Fourth, financial anchors for value revaluation
The growth of key customers lies in solving customer pain points. Industrial and commercial energy storage and large storage opportunities are very good, focusing on developing market opportunities in Asia, Africa and Latin America, and emerging markets such as Pakistan, India and other markets.
Post time: Feb-18-2025